Weekly Voting Rights News Update

By Erin Ferns

In the aftermath of the presidential primaries, stories of unprecedented voter registration and turnout are drifting to the back burner. But with an exceedingly imbalanced electorate, the fight to create access to the voting rolls and enforce the voting rights of all Americans continues. With historic voter registration drives underway and a preview of the types of problems that could occur in November, the focus of the media is beginning to shift towards the less sexy, but crucial elements that work to maximize voter participation while ensuring eligible voters can cast their ballots and have them counted. In Project Vote’s view, this is a welcome development since many of the potential issues require more time to sort out than is available if problems are noted only weeks in advance of the election. This week, election officials, advocates and a presidential candidate worked to assist in or restore voting rights for hospitalized veterans in Connecticut, minority citizens in Georgia, and former felons in Tennessee.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 6/30-7/2. Likely voters. MoE 4% (3/31-4/2 results)

Independents disapprove of George Bush 14/86, so that has a clear effect on Lieberman's approval ratings. He is even less popular with Democrats while more Independents now disapprove of his performance than approve. While Lieberman's approval ratings continue to fall, the matchups with Lamont were largely unaffected compared to a couple of months ago.

Other findings from the poll -- Obama crushes McCain 57-35 in Connecticut, and Lieberman would actually hurt McCain on the ticket in the state. Let's hope McCain picks him.

My biggest fear is that Lieberman retires in 2012. I want him defeated at the ballot box. And until then, this poll, along with yesterday's Q-poll, should go a long way toward dispelling the notion that Lieberman is popular. His loving embrace of Bush and McCain, along with his rabid warmongering, have definitely killed his support at home.

Full crosstabs can be found below the fold.

Race tracker wiki: CT-Sen

A new Quinnipiac University poll   has Obama beating McCain 56-35 in Connecticut.

This maybe doesn't come as much of a surprise, but it should be recalled that Rasmussen polled CT at the end of May and found Obama up by only 3. After that some of the McCain team started talking excitedly about a possible "Lieberman effect", and if I recall correctly they marked CT as a possible target state on the McCain website strategy briefing.

Well, doesn't look like they'll be following up on that one. The internals don't provide any comfort for McCain either - Obama leads in every category the pollsters could think of, except Republicans.

Quinnipiac. 6/26-29. Registered voters. MoE 2% (3/19-24)

That's a 15-point downward swing in support, from +17 approval to +2.

The crosstabs:

Yup. There is little doubt among Democrats and Republicans in the state about their senator's allegiances.

Remember we polled a hypothetical Lamont-Lieberman rematch back in April, and on that poll, Lieberman had a better 47-40 approval/disapproval rating. Matched up against Ned Lamont, Lieberman lost 37-51.

I've got another poll in the field this week asking that same questions again. If that Q-poll is any indication, Lieberman may be looking even worse against Lamont this time around.

Incidentally, Dodd is at 51-34.

Some people know how to to put the "fun" in "fundraiser."  Orange to Blue candidateJim Himes held an event at a minor-league ballpark in CT-04 to raise a few dollars and raise his visibility in the district.  I thought it was a great idea and a great excuse to bring my 2-year-old out to a game.

More Iraq Moratorium #10 reports. Meg Oldman of Point Arena CA checks in:

Friday, June 20, 2008  was a warm, sunny day; the best kind for protest.  

I represented Iraq Moratorium, and Women in Black by myself, this time.  A good number of people stopped and talked with me about the war, elections coming up later in the fall, and the economy. Drivers going by(more than usual due to being the first day of Summer) honked, whistled and raised their fists high in solidarity.

Overall, I feel that one person DOES make a difference, as witnessed above.  I am excited to sense the populace taking a deep breath and preparing to change the paradigm from one of fear and apathy, to one of focus and and unity.  I am fulfilling my role to facilitate standing together, all over the world, one the same day, at the same time.

Just days after the Alaska AFL-CIO endorsed Orange to Blue candidate Mark Begich, fellow Orange to Blue candidate Jim Himes has been endorsed by the Connecticut AFL-CIO:

"Jim really understands the issues facing working families," said James Parent, Connecticut State Council of Machinists President and AFL-CIO Vice President. "Jim knows that we need to create good jobs and fight for the manufacturing jobs that we still have, to find real answers on healthcare and education, and to get out of Iraq. I'm convinced Jim will be a tremendous ally for working families, and we look forward to doing all we can to get him elected."

Connecticut's union density is lower than Alaska's, but this is an especially significant endorsement given his opponent. As DavidNYC's introductory post on Himes laid out, a number of Democrats and progressive groups have been giving protective cover to Republican incumbent Chris Shays. The League of Conservation Voters and the Human Rights Campaign have endorsed Shays. They would argue that he's a moderate Republican -- but should an LCV-endorsed candidate turn around and support coastal oil drilling? What kind of moderation is that?

The LCV and HRC might have gotten played on this one thanks to their desire to appear non-partisan damaging the causes they exist to support, but the Connecticut AFL-CIO obviously knows better and won't be supporting someone like Shays just because he only pisses on them 57% of the time (PDF) instead of 90% of the time.

Jim Himes is fighting a tough battle to take out the last House Republican in New England, and unfortunately, he's having to fight against people who should be on his side. But organized labor has his back, and, through the Orange to Blue list, so can you.

Race tracker wiki: CT-04

Hello Kossacks,

Over at Future Majority we are about to start a live blog with George Colli IV, a 29 year old state senate candidate in Connecticut running using pubic financing.  Please join us.  George's initial comments are below the fold.

Every month's Iraq Moratorium action in Milwaukee seems to have a special moment. In May it was a thumbs-up from a passing Army recruiter. This month, it was when a woman stopped to tell a leafleter handing out information about the Moratorium that her son is in Iraq. So tearful and emotional she had difficulty speaking, she said he was on his second tour there as a National Guardsman. "Thank you for what you're doing," she said. "I just want him home."

Cornwall, Connecticut held its first outdoor vigil and reported an "overwhelmingly positive response from people driving by, with at least one local resident, Suzanne, who hadn't heard about the doings on the Green in advance pulling her car over and jumping aboard for the rest of the vigil."  Maybe it was the horn trio (two trombones and a sax) that got her attention. (Photo above.)

Allow me to preface this diary by saying that this is something of personal interest to me, as well as being a bit of (hopefully) relevant social and political commentary, so I apologize in advance if it seems a bit emotionally charged.

I was witness last night to some rather terrible political shenanigans in my hometown of Winsted, CT.  For those who don't live in Connecticut, or who didn't follow the news a couple of summers ago, Winsted is a small mill town in Litchfield county of about 10-12000 people, mostly blue-collar.  Last night was the second town meeting to try and pass a budget for fiscal year 2008-2009.  The original budget proposed by the board of selectmen was defeated in referendum last month, which meant that the budget would be adjusted by the board, then brought before the town at a town meeting again, where residents could propose cuts, which could be voted upon by those residents in attendance.  Unfortunately, by the town charter, additions cannot be made at a town meeting, only cuts.  Additions have to be made by the board of selectmen at their meeting.

With 35 Senate seats being contested this year (33 plus 2 special elections), Democrats have only 4 female candidates: Jeanne Shaheen (NH), Kay Hagan (NC), Vivian Figures (AL) and incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu (LA). That's a shamefully low number. The Republicans only have 2 incumbents, Elizabeth Dole (NC) and Susan Collins (ME), and one sole challenger, Christine O'Donnell (DE).

Overall, this is not a great year for women in the U.S. Senate. The overall outcome will be somewhere between minus 2 and plus 4 female Senators. The most likely outcome is somewhere between minus 1 and plus 1.

So, let's look ahead to 2010. Specifically, to which Democratic female politicians might or should run for the U.S. Senate in 2010.

I just watched a John McCain campaign ad on Comcast cable in central Connecticut. It was focused on the environment, and began with the claim that Sen. McCain went against Bush five years ago to "sound the alarm on global warming" (rough quote). It's a positive ad, in no way attacks Obama, and I have no issue with the spot. If I can find it on YouTube, I'll update this diary at that time.
What is confusing is that the ad is airing in Connecticut, in June. I don't see any value for McCain in chipping away at what is (almost) sure to be a wipeout win for Obama in CT. Is this an (admittedly strange) way of trying to bolster Chris Shays in the 4th, who is apparently in some real trouble? Other possible ideas below.

In November 2006, Tim Tagaris wrote a post mortem about what went wrong with the Ned Lamont campaign. From that post:

Barack Obama

Quite possibly the biggest disappointment ... period.

While on his book tour, he was in NYC one day, had a scheduled day off, and appeared in Massachusetts the following day.  Yet he couldn't make time to stop in the state between the two on his day off.  We made it explicitly clear he was the single senator we wanted in the state above all others.

He declined.

Eventually, we asked Senator Obama to send out an email for the campaign to his Connecticut list.  We created a culture in which emails became news (much like we did with the blogs in the primary).  They made it entirely clear that he would basically not even mention Joe Lieberman's name in the email, let alone take him to task for his unfortunate position on the war in Iraq.  This was disappointing, but I wasn't going to be spiteful.  They sent the email, and as I hoped, the press came calling.  Our Press Secretary, Eddie Vale, was asked how many people the email went to.  He looked on the back-end of the website and saw the number of click-throughs to the landing page I created.  He answered "about 5,000."  Within minutes of the Associated Press piece going on the wire, I received several phone calls from Obama staff.  They were none to pleased about the 5,000 number.  Essentially, Obama could be seen as helping, but not helping THAT much.  His staff apparently made it clear that the email only went out to 225 people in Connecticut.  That's it.  The next day we were subject to a correction in the papers and ridicule from Lieberman's campaign and corners of the right-wing blogosphere.

It's also important to note that Obama's email came only after a tremendous amount of pressure built up from portions of various online communities who "threatened" in behind-the-scenes conversations and open discussions online that support for Lamont would be viewed as a part of a "presidential checklist."

Everyone should also know that Robert Gibbs, part of the group that ran the infamous Dean/Osama ad during Iowa 2004, is now Barack Obama's Communications Director.

So why were there 5,000 clickthroughs? Because Atrios got a copy of the email and linked to the landing page, inflating the number of people who saw that page. Obama was pressured into "helping" Ned Lamont, but that help took the form of an email sent to a piddling 225 people. Such help...

Keep that in mind as you read this:

It's well known that Obama's 2006 endorsement was important. But it's not widely understood just how urgently the Lieberman people begged for Obama's help at a critical moment in Lieberman's career -- and in that light, just how much of a back-stabbing Lieberman's attacks on Obama now represent.
In response to the Lieberman camp's pleas for help, Obama subsequently endorsed him at a dinner of Connecticut Democrats later that month.

"I am absolutely certain Connecticut is going to have the good sense to send Joe Lieberman back to the U.S. Senate so he can continue to serve on our behalf," Obama said at the time.

"It was a favor as huge as we could have gotten -- it was like a drowning man getting thrown a life preserver," the Lieberman official continued. "Just when Ned was trying to establish himself as a credible alternative on the war, Barack Obama came in and said, `Hey, I disagree with him on the war, but you should send him back to the Senate.'"

So Obama gave Lieberman his priceless endorsement, undercutting Ned Lamont. Then, in the general election, rather than get behind Lamont as the Democratic nominee, he undercut him by refusing anything more than a pitiful email to a pitiful 200+ recipients. In other words, Obama ran interference for Lieberman.

Now, Obama reaps what he sowed, with Joe Lieberman transformed into one of John McCain's top attack dogs.

Supporting Joe Lieberman and undermining Ned Lamont was likely Obama's worst decision the past two years. And while a heaping spoonfull of "I told you so" is in order, I'd be satisfied with a full-fledged ouster of Lieberman from the Democratic caucus. Senate Democrats (and Barack Obama) cannot allow a betrayal of this magnitude remain unpunished.

Update: The past two years, Lieberman has used his chairmanship at Homeland Security to cover Bush's myriad f'ups from port security to Katrina. How much does anyone want to bet that if Senate Dems inexplicably let him keep his committee in 2009, he doesn't use it to conspire with Republicans and undermine Obama's presidency? Bet on it.

Given we were right about Lieberman before, do Senate Democrats really want to bet that we won't be right about this?

Race tracker wiki: CT-Sen

(In the interests of full disclosure, I should say that I'm related, in some way, to the member of congress I'm going to mention below ...)

Although I'm unclear about a few details, I'd like to see Rep. Rosa DeLauro un-seat Sen. Joe Lieberman in 2012. I don't know, for instance, if she would have to force a primary contest for the Democratic nomination, or not. (Lieberman is technically an Independent who caucuses with the Democrats in the Senate, not a Democratic Senator ...)

Connecticut

Rasmussen. 5/29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (3/11 results)

Rasmussen notes that the previous poll was pre-Wright. My theory was that Obama's Democratic support had probably soften thanks to the primary. So it was time to dig into the internals:

Hmmm. Obama has weakened with independents, which could point to a Wright Effect. But he has also weakened a dramatic 14 points with Democrats, which is a clear Primary Effect. But unlike most other places, Obama hasn't bled female support. It looks like male Democrats have decided to step back and further evaluate the candidates (and even flirt with McCain). This state won't be competitive when everyone comes home.

Nor should West Virginia be competitive, but McCain is showing some surprising early weakness.

West Virginia

Rasmussen. 6/2. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

The crosstabs:

Kerry only won Democrats in West Virginia by a 69-30 margin in 2004, so they are already not a bunch inclined to vote en masse for their presidential candidate. And it would take an epic McCain collapse for Obama to match those numbers, much less improve on them.

It appears that McCain's weakness with Republicans and independents is making this race artificially close. But when Republicans come home, and the Appalachian Democrats don't, this state will likely go Red. This is certainly one of those few states in which Hillary would've done better. (But of course, we already knew that.)

Let the Summer Fun Begin at Traitor Joe's!

It's all on sale here at Traitor Joe's, your "Independent" food store, just in time for summer fun. It's gonna be a hot one this year, so read on to see what we have in store for you, fresh from the Senate chamber to our Republican National Convention shelves - but hurry, because at these prices, we're bound to sell out!

Check out more of our specials below the fold in our Campaign 2008 "Fear-mongering Flyer"...

Within the past month I put forth 19 polls with 15 candidates each to figure out who you guys want in an Obama cabinet. With voting in all rounds now over I compiled five different cabinets and will put them all up for a vote this week.

Who got included in the final cabinets: the top three in each poll automatically made it into these final cabinet polls, in some cases also the 4th and 5th. However, to make sure that the cabinets are as diverse as possible I gave some candidates who didn't have enough votes a wildcard.

Each day this week you can rate a cabinet. Today, you can rate a possible Obama/Richardson cabinet on a scale from 1 (hate it) to 10 (love it). At the end I will post the results and the cabinet with the highest average wins.

Within the past month I put forth 19 polls with 15 candidates each to figure out who you guys want in an Obama cabinet. With voting in all rounds now over I compiled five different cabinets and will put them all up for a vote this week.

Who got included in the final cabinets: the top three in each poll automatically made it into these final cabinet polls, in some cases also the 4th and 5th. However, to make sure that the cabinets are as diverse as possible I gave some candidates who didn't have enough votes a wildcard.

Each day this week you can rate a cabinet. Today, you can rate a possible Obama/Richardson cabinet on a scale from 1 (hate it) to 10 (love it). At the end I will post the results and the cabinet with the highest average wins.