It is becoming more and more apparent that the Clinton campaign had no plan post-Super Tuesday.  They have lost 8 contests in a row.  The campaigns initial decision to focus their attention on TX and OH leads to negative press in Wisconsin.  Now, it is turning out that Hillary's time in Texas may have been wasted:

The California poll released today showing Obama down by 12 points illustrates how difficult a path Obama has to the nomination.  After South Carolina, he has to compete in 20+ states against a rival with 100% name recognition who just happens to be married to a very popular ex-President. Senator Clinton has the establishment backing in almost every one of these states, which will enable her to tap into an already developed GOTV operation. With the exception of Illinois, Obama is building his organization from the ground up.  That is a very formidable task in such as short time.

After Clinton’s Nevada win, the delegate count (minus Superdelgates and Michigan), is tied.   Regardless of what the media (and most high-profile bloggers) tells us, this contest is nowhere near decided. Clinton enjoys the backing of the Democratic Party Establishment in most states, which allows her to use their GOTV operations.  Obama has to build his GOTV organization with grassroot support.  So, how does Obama still win the nomination?

While we were distracted watching the Debate, Howard Dean's DNC has joined the Culinary Union in defending the at-large caucuses.  Here is their motion.

DNC's Motion via Vegas Pundit

Sen. Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.), the second-ranking party leader in the Senate, says President Bill Clinton’s comments about Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) are getting "too personal" and called on the former president to refrain from attacking Obama’s integrity.

"I’m really troubled by his questioning the sincerity of Barack Obama’s opposition to the war in Iraq," Durbin said. "I really think it is unfortunate to question Barack’s sincerity on the war. He has been there from the start, opposing this war."

It's nice to see Senator Durbin stand up for Obama over Bill Clinton's smears.  Maybe Bill will start being a little more honest on the trail from now on.

If Clinton wins Nevada and Obama wins South Carolina, Clinton has the obvious edge on Super Tuesday on Feb. 5th with the large primary states New York and California.  He is also vulnerable in Arizona and New Jersey. What does Obama need to do to keep Clinton from winning the nomination race (or the momentum race) on Feb. 5th?  Below is my theory:

As the Iowa caucus draws closer, I have been searching through blogs, articles, etc. to get a feel for what is happening on the ground in Iowa.   Many observers feel that whoever wins Western Iowa (with approximately 550 delegates) will win Iowa . Edwards is considered the favorite in Western Iowa due to his performance in 2004 and his rural platform.  After reviewing the 2004 results in the Western counties, I am surprised that Edwards is considered the strongest candidate in this region.   For that reason, I believe that Obama and/or Clinton could pull an upset and win the majority of the Western Iowa delegates.  There appears to be enthusiasm for both Obama and Clinton in these counties as demonstrated by the large crowds they have drawn and endorsements they have received.  

I've been waiting patiently for someone to make a diary comparing the Obama and Clinton strategy for the Feb. 5th primaries.  However, I decided it was finally time for me to come out of lurkdom to write this diary.  

It’s becoming more obvious to me that the Democratic nomination won’t be decided before the Feb. 5th primaries/caucuses.  I’d like to examine what Obama and Clinton are doing to prepare for 2/5, since they appear to be the only candidates with the cash available to compete after the early primary states.

In order to give the Democratic Party control of the U.S. House this November, we need a net gain of 12 seats.    

Below are a list of contests I think are the ones to focus on, but I could use some help weeding out uncompetitive seats and adding in any missing competitive seats (Organizations raising money for candidate also noted):

1.  Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents - SD-A (DCCC, Emily's List)

2.  Open Democratic Seats - KY-4 and LA-7.

3.  Open Republican Seats -
   

      CO-3  Salzaar (D) leads 49-32 over Walcher (R) in 8/04 internal poll (DCCC).
      NY-29 (DFA, DKos).
      PA-8 (DCCC, DKos).
      PA-15(DCCC).In 2002, R-I won by 6%.
      VA-2 Drake (R) v. Ashe (D).
      WA-5 (DCCC).
      WA-8 (DCCC).

4.  Incumbent Republican Seats -
      CO-7  Thomas (D) leads 45-42 over Beauprez (R) in 8/04 internal poll (DCCC).

      KY-3  Miller (D) leads 48-44 over Northrup (R) in 8/04 poll (DCCC).

      MN-6  Kennedy (R) leads 46 -43 over Wetterling(D) in 7/04 poll. (DCCC, Emily's List, MoveOn).

     NC-11  Taylor(R) leads 49 -46 over Keever(D) in 8/04 poll (DCCC, DFA, Emily's List).

    NM-1  Wilson(R) leads 49 -43 Romero (D) in 9/04 poll DCCC, DFA, DKos, MoveOn).  This is a re-match from 2002 race which Wilson won 55 - 45%.

PA-6 (DCCC, DFA, DKos, Emily's List, MoveOn).    2002 Results show Gerlach(R-I) winning by 2%.

5.  TX  Redistricting -
     TX-1 - 9/04 Poll Sandlin (D) leads 47 - 41 over Gohmert (R) 9/04 poll.
     TX-2
     TX-17
     TX-19
     TX-32

Looking at this list, it does seem possible we could take back the house this election. However, there is so little information to be found on the house elections it's hard to tell what will happen in November.